Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle

نویسنده

  • JAMES E. ANDERSON
چکیده

Gravity equations have been widely used to infer trade  ow effects of various institutional arrangements. We show that estimated gravity equations do not have a theoretical foundation. This implies both that estimation suffers from omitted variables bias and that comparative statics analysis is unfounded. We develop a method that (i) consistently and efŽ ciently estimates a theoretical gravity equation and (ii) correctly calculates the comparative statics of trade frictions. We apply the method to solve the famous McCallum border puzzle. Applying our method, we Ž nd that national borders reduce trade between industrialized countries by moderate amounts of 20–50 percent. (JEL F10, F15)

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تاریخ انتشار 2001